Ranking numbers

[StatRacket]

Please check out my website StatRacket.net for lots of men's tennis statistics that may be useful or just interesting. Thanks, Joel.

[Forehand_lob]

He doesn't even need to do that well; Murray could outperform Nadal at both of them, not win either one, and depending on where Nadal fell, and still overtake him.

I must also revise what I said earlier: Nadal can overtake Federer for #1 by winning both the Rogers Cup and Cincy if Federer falls early/does not participate, but #1 would revert to Federer for the US Open because the Olympics would fall off.

[Forehand_lob]

Cincinnati still has to be played, but ignoring that tournament for the time being and taking off last year's US Open, the rankings of the top 6 look like:

Federer: 9040
Murray: 7850
Nadal: 7765
Djokovic: 6250
Roddick: 5300
Del Potro: 4905

Because of the higher points placed on winning the tournament from previous years, either Murray or Nadal could take over the number 1 spot if Federer falls at the semis. Theoretically, Roddick or Del Potro could break into the top 4 if Djokovic does poorly, but that would involve Roddick reaching the finals or Del Potro winning.

In sadder news, Gasquet is ranked 38 and almost certainly would have earned the 140+ points to reach 32nd in the 2 slams and 1 Master's (in addition to other tournaments) that he hasn't been able to play. Assuming he doesn't play for the rest of the year, he'll drop outside of the top 100.

[tennisontherocks]

I read somewhere that Gasquet was planning to be back at New haven. But with ITF appeal, don't know if that will be the case.

On WTA, Flavia Pennetta enters top 10. Louise will be so happy

[funches]

Returning to my earlier theme about Challengers awarding too many points compared to ATP events, someone named Horacio Zeballos qualified for the U.S. Open this year and is ranked 76th in the world despite having a career record of 0-1, with his only tour-level match a first-round loss at Newport this year.

Because I have time on my hands, I checked his results for the last 12 months and the highest-ranked player he has beaten was No. 93.

Something's wrong when the ranking system encourages guys to play in challengers all year along instead of testing themselves against the big boys.

[Forehand_lob]

Out of curiosity, I decided to see what the equivalent rank would be for a ATP player who pulled a Clijsters (i.e. a QF and 4th round at 2 Master's and a Slam title). A male player which did that would have 2,270 points, placing him at 14th. I admit I was expecting lower. Basically, the monopolization of the Master's by 3 players has made the ATP extremely top heavy.

[tennisontherocks]

^^^
Also, ATP has new point distribution and everyone except for the winners get less points than WTA equivalent.

I am not sure if WTA's YEC gives a wild card to the slam winner who may not finish in top 8. On ATP they have the rule and one needs to finish in top 20 to qualify. WTA may want to implement same rule here to get Kimmy for Doha.

[tennisontherocks]

Here are the points of top players after removing all points from last fall:

Roger 9840
Nadal 8145
Murray 6040
Djokovic 5640
Del Potro 5655
Roddick 4230

I think they all can be expected to play both masters series and the YEC. I doubt if Nadal will even bother playing 250/500 events and Roger may only do Basel. But with these point margins, Roger-Rafa look in great shape to have 1/2 finish.

Interesting race will be for #3 spot between Del Potro/Murray/Djokovic. Del Potro has the bragging rights for that spot with the slam win. Roddick also has a slim chance to sneak in there, but really needs to go deep each week.

[Forehand_lob]

I think they all can be expected to play both masters series and the YEC.

I am not so sure that Nadal will. With the abdominal injury, I'm thinking that there's a high chance he'll sit out most of the rest of the year.

[Forehand_lob]

Who's the year-end #1? Is there still a chance Nadal could take it?

The answer is: Federer and no.

The points total for the top five as of today (last year's YECs have fallen off):

Federer 10150
Nadal 9205
Djokovic 7910
Murray 6630
Del Potro 5985

With a gap of 945 points and the YECs only worth 800 (at least they were last year), Nadal can't close it even if he wins and Federer skips London to go play with his kids. Djokovic is locked in at #3, as he can't overtake Nadal, but cannot be overtaken by Murray. If Murray plays poorly and Del Potro plays very well (I think he'd have to win), then Del Potro can move into the top 4 and Murray would fall to #5.

[funches]

The year-end championship is worth a lot more than that now.

Each round-robin win is worth 200 points. A semifinal win is worth 400 and the final is worth 500.

The upshot: With 1,500 points available for being perfect, Rafa has an outside chance to catch Federer, but it's hard to imagine Rafa winning this tournament, which basically is his only shot.

There's actually a better chance (though not likely) that Djokovic will catch Rafa. The way Nadal is playing, he might go 0-3 in London. They way the Djoker is playing, he could win it. Let's say Djokovic goes 2-1 in the round robin and wins the event. That's 1,300 points. If Rafa goes winless, Djokovic is No. 2.

If Djokovic goes 3-0 and wins the event, Rafa would have to win two matches to keep from being passed.

[summerinok]

according to ATP:

Here are the key scenarios in the battle for the 2009 ATP World Tour Champion title:

1. If Nadal is an undefeated champion at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals (winning all-three round-robin matches, a semi-final and final) he will earn the maximum 1,500 points. To finish as 2009 ATP World Tour Champion Federer would need to either win all three round-robin matches OR reach the final.

2. If Nadal goes 2-1 in round-robin play and wins the title he will earn 1,300 points. To finish as 2009 ATP World Tour Champion Federer would need to either win two round-robin matches OR win one round-robin match and (assuming he advanced past the round-robin stage) win his semi-final match to reach the final.

3. If Nadal goes 3-0 in round-robin play, wins his semi-final but loses the final he will earn 1,000 points. To finish as 2009 ATP World Tour Champion Federer would need to win just one round-robin match.

ps: i just don't see nadal go 0-3 in around rubin, at all

[summerinok]

wouldn't it be funny to see someone w. 2 slams and 2 slam finals ranked #2 to someone's #1 w. only 1 slam and no other finals?

[Forehand_lob]

My sense of numbers has abandoned me! I am shamed!

Nadal has performed extraordinarily well in the Master's, getting 5,280 of his points from them. Federer also seems to have skipped out on the 500 tournaments, only playing Basel.

[funches]

ps: i just don't see nadal go 0-3 in around rubin, at all

Given Nadal's tremendous will and ability to play well under pressure, you're probably right.

But let's look at a hypothetical draw of Rafa, Djokovic, del Potro and Davydenko in one group.

1) Rafa lost his last match to Djokovic 6-2, 6-3 two days ago on an indoor surface. In their previous match, Djokovic won 6-1, 6-4

2) Rafa lost his last match to del Potro 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 at the U.S. Open. In their previous match, del Potro won 7-6, 6-1.

3) Rafa lost his last match to Davydenko 7-6, 6-3 a month ago.

Those are convincing numbers. Rafa hasn't won a tournament since May, he recently got blitzed 6-1, 6-3 by Cilic on the same court where he won an Olympic gold medal last year and he's never gotten past the semis at the year-end event.

Even if he gets the easiest possible bracket of Murray (7-2 career lead, including beatdown this year at Indian Wells), Roddick (injured and still in post-Wimbledon funk) and Verdasco (9-0 lifetime), I'm not sure he gets out of it after having to save five match points against Almagro and having Robredo serve for the match against him.