Ranking numbers

[Harvey]

Do you think Murray can make a move into the Top 3?

[ccm]

I'm too lazy to do the math, but at a glance, Murray doesn't have huge stacks of points to defend before Wimbledon whereas Djoker does:

- winner Indian Wells
- semifinalist Monte Carlo
- winner Rome
- semifinalist Roland Garros

He was also a semifinalist in Hamburg, but I can't remember what happened to that tourney.

So unless Murray really stuffs it up, he's in a good position to make a move.

Then again, I haven't been paying too much attention to the new ranking points, so I'm not sure how that factors in.

[tennisontherocks]

Novak was in semis of Hamburg also, so he has big chunk to defend and Murray has pretty good chance to make his move. But Murray's clay results have been suspect, so nothing is guaranteed.

[tennisontherocks]

Now Murray trails Novak by < 600 points. The way Novak is playing right now, don't see him defending all the clay results from last year and Andy should take over his spot in coming 2 months.

Kolya is out of Miami and looks like the foot injury is quite serious. He will surely drop out of top 8 now.

[Forehand_lob]

I was going to resurrect this topic, but it looks like TotR beat me to it! I'll get you and your little dog, too!

Nadal's taking 3 of the past 4 slams has removed a certain amount of drama from the number 1 ranking. While it is numerically possible for him to lose the #1 spot after Roland Garros, it is highly unlikely. Of course, now he's expected to win everything he enters, so we'll see how he deals with the pressure (and before anyone jumps on this, I just think he's traditionally downplayed his chances, especially at Roland Garros).

Both Djokovic and Murray have the opportunity to pick up a lot of points in Miami; they both lost in the first round. For Murray to overtake Djokovic, he needs to win and for Djokovic to fall by the semis. Murray hasn't shown himself to be a particularly great clay player, so I'm not sure he can overtake him by the French Open.

On the women's side, Safina is defending a QF from Miami, so if she makes the final, she should surpass Serena. Of course, I wouldn't bet money on that happening. Dementieva is also defending a QF and has a pretty good chance to go past Jankovic (defending a final).

Ivanovic has an opportunity to close the gap between her and Venus by making a good showing. It can't be worse than her last year's first round exit.

[tennisontherocks]

Now Murray is only 400 points behind Novak. Novak has lot of defend on clay (Rome title+2 semis) and even with average clay results, Murray looks set to overtake him. Del Potro cracks top 5, but still LONG way to top 4. Kolya is out of top 8 and on the verge on getting out of top 10.

Dementieva makes it to top 3 for the first time in her career with JJ slipping to #4. Venus gets back to top 5, only 200 points behind JJ and does not have much points to defend till wimbledon. If Serena skips Charleston, Safina is in big danger of becoming #1 (I don't think she need that added pressure before the clay season).

I am curious to see how Azarenka follows up the big win in Miami. She appears bit too intense...if she can learn from Serena/Maria to channel those emotions properly, things look bright.

[hellgod]

If Serena skips Charleston, Safina is in big danger of becoming #1 (I don't think she need that added pressure before the clay season).

ans so she does...

Safina to supplant Serena at No. 1

Serena lost in the first round of the Andalucia Tennis Experience (nice tournament name btw... can't wait for the Manila Tennis Extravaganza), and Dinara will be coming in to the clay court season not only defending a runner-up finish at Roland Garros, but also bringing in the extra baggage of proving she deserves the #1 ranking as much as JJ did.

[Forehand_lob]

Dropping the other topic since I think funches, totr, and I put more thought and discussion into it than the author of that article...

By getting to (at least) the quarter finals in Stuttgart, Safina will have a lead of about 1000 ranking points over Serena before she has to defend her claycourt streak last year.

Murray is set to overtake Djokovic, provided the Djoker doesn't beat both Federer and Nadal in Rome. Okay, it could be Federer and Gonzalez or Monaco, but we all know that Nadal is going to be in that final. I don't necessarily want to compare Murray and Safina, but let me do so since they're both are set to inherit (for him) or have already inherited (for her) a higher rank that they got, not by winning, but by the one ranked higher than them losing.

Even if Federer loses to Djokovic, he looks to remain roughly 1000 points ahead of the third-ranked men's player.

With Monfils injured and unable to defend his French Open semi, he looks set to drop back to the 15-20 range.

Del Potro, Simon, and Roddick all have opportunities to close the gap between them and the big 4 since none of them did well at the French Open last year (or played in Roddick's case), but, realistically, Del Potro is the only one who might take advantage of it (clay is not Roddick's forte and Simon has the issue of being a French player at his home slam).

[Forehand_lob]

Looking at the top players and dropping their last year's French Open points, we have:

Nadal 12960
Federer 9070
Murray 8870
Djokovic 7930

Nadal will be uncontested for the number 1 spot until much later, especially since he will mostly likely win the French again. Murray can overtake Federer for the number 2 spot if he goes further in the French, but I'm thinking that he'll top out at the QFs unless he gets really lucky and makes the semis. Djokovic is pretty much set for 4th until Wimbledon where he can make up for his horrible second round flameout.

On the women's side, we have:

Safina 8401
Serena 7658
Venus 7057

I don't see the FO changing this. Serena would need to go a couple rounds further than Safina, and I don't think she can do that based on her current clay form (or injured state). By getting her ranking up, Venus has cut down the possibility of meeting Serena until later in the tournaments; no Williams v. Williams QF match!

Ivanovic has a very high chance of dropping out of the top 10 when her last year FO result drops. I don't think anyone's giving her a chance of repeating.

[raymondtehcc]

Yes, if Nadal keep up his great form right now (without any injuries), he will maintain his crown at least until the end of this year.
So the ranking competition is higher with the world number 2, 3 and 4 spots. But i still expecting Roger Federer to regain the world number 1 spots soon.
Good luck for 4 of them, they are tremendous tennis players with own unique skills.

[Forehand_lob]

I'm pretty sure that all calculations of Federer really having to struggle to get to number 1 again took Nadal winning the FO as a given. Nadal only gets 180 points from a R16 exit at Roland Garros, so his points are going to go down quite a bit.

I will pick this up after the FO, when hopefully I will be able to type with two hands.

[louise]

I'm sorry about your tendonitis, F-Lo, but it will get better. I recently started playing again after the knee tendonitis thing. I know how much it sucks to be sidelined but this, too, shall pass.

[Forehand_lob]

With Nadal not defending his Queens points and Federer ditching Halle, this is generally how the top 6 are going to look going into Wimbledon (with some minor changes because of Queens and Halle results):

Nadal 12735 (minus Queens)
Federer 10620 (minus Halle)
Murray 9370
Djokovic 8080
Del Potro 5660
Roddick 4400

Queens and Halle are apparently both 250 tournaments, so even winning them would cause the previous year's winner to drop.

Dropping off their Wimbledon results, the top 6 will generally look like this:

Nadal 10735
Federer 9220
Murray 8730 (could pick up 140 for winning Queens)
Djokovic 8010 (would lose 60 if he wins Halle)
Del Potro 5590
Roddick 4330

So, if Nadal makes it to the semis, he keeps the top ranking, otherwise Federer could reclaim it by winning. Murray would need to go further than Federer to overtake him and would need to at least make the QFs. Theoretically, he could take the number 1 spot by winning Queens and Wimbledon if Nadal goes out in the first round. Djokovic needs to go deeper than Murray to get back to the #3 spot, with a semi or better required and Murray to fall early.

Roddick is so far back that even if he wins Wimbledon, he would not overtake a semis-making Del Potro (but I don't give much odds on either happening).

Theoretically, there could be quite a lot of movement, but I'm thinking that the top 4 remain the same until the summer hard court season.

[Forehand_lob]

My obsession with numbers rears its head again.

Looking at the top 6 men:

Federer 11,220 (defending 360 through the US Open, 2000 at US Open)
Nadal 10,735 (defending 2250 through the US Open, 900 at US Open)
Murray 9,450 (defending 1450 through the US Open, 1400 at US Open)
Djokovic 8,150 (defending 1360 through the US Open, 900 at US Open)
Del Potro 5,705 (defending 1750 through the US Open, 500 at US Open)
Roddick 5,440 (defending 390 through the US Open, 500 at the US Open)

Federer can most likely skip playing until the US Open and remain #1; Nadal is the only one with the potential to overtake him. Depending on how long Nadal is out and how he plays when he comes back (I haven't seen anything about his schedule), he could be passed by Murray for the #2 ranking by the US Open. Roddick will almost certainly pass Del Potro by the US Open, who will be going to Masters series tournaments and not the smaller hardcourt tournaments he cleaned up at last year (Roddick also skipped Cincy, I think he was injured).

Realistically, Federer is #1 until someone else wins the US Open. If he plays both hardcourt masters and plays reasonably well, then he may even be able to keep it beyond that.

[tennisontherocks]

On Nadal's website, the schedule lists only cinci and Toronto. Not sure about the recovery status for his knees, but he has another month to go and should be ready to make full assault . After dropping all pre-US open points, Nadal leads Murray by 500 points. So if Murray can win both cincy/Toronto, he will be able to overtake Rafa before US open.