Ranking numbers

[louise]

okay, well, thanks for clinching the YEC for rafa, funch!

[funches]

okay, well, thanks for clinching the YEC for rafa, funch!

That's what I'm here for, lou.

[funches]

And as it turned out, Nadal did receive the worst draw possible. He got Djokovic instead of Murray, Davydenko instead of a possibly injured/hasn't come down from his U.S. Open high del Potro and Roddick-replacement Soderling instead of Verdasco. He lost his last match to all three of them.

Unless del Potro makes a dramatic recovery, Federer and Murray appear to be locks to advance from their group.

So Louise, now I've got the double gris gris (of potentially wrong declarations) going against Fed and his task of holding on to No. 1.

[funches]

One down, two to go.

As anyone should have expected, Soderling takes care of Rafa 6-4, 6-4.

[hellgod]

I read somewhere that the Davis Cup also offers points for every win in a live rubber. Checking the DCup website, each match win in the final is worth 75 points, so if Rafa wins both matches in next week's DCup final, would that still play a factor to who ends up as #1?

Anyway, Nadal ending #1 over Fed would be as controversial (or should be, to me at least) as Safina being #1 over Serena.

[Forehand_lob]

As I understand it from their Ranking FAQ, Davis Cup is eligible to replace an ATP 500. Nadal's lowest one there is the semi in Beijing, which gives him 180 points. He's listed as getting 80 points from Davis Cup now, so if both of his matches are live-rubbers and he wins, he could increase up to 230 points, replacing Beijing with an additional 50 points.

With that, under the #2 scenario of Nadal going 2-1 in RR and winning the title while Federer just wins 2 RR matches, the extra 50 points would give him a 5 point lead over Federer.

So, basically, Nadal can reclaim the #1 spot by sweeping everything he plays for the rest of the year and the Spanish Davis Cup team making sure that he has 2 live rubbers.

[funches]

So if Djokovic passes him by five points this week, which is entirely possible, Nadal could get back to No. 2 in the year-end rankings by winning two live-rubber Davis Cup matches. Not likely (because there's a good chance the second match will be a dead rubber), but possible.

Hmm. Hadn't thought of that. Bummer.

EDIT: Djokovic goes down meekly to Soderling after leading 4-3 in the first-set tiebreaker and getting a crack at two second serves. If Davydemko beats Rafa, the Djoker will still get to No. 2 by winning out, but he appears tapped out. He might not even beat Rafa.

[funches]

The ATP site says Murray has to wait for the Federer-Delpo match to find out if he advances to the semis.

Technically that's true, but by my calculations, the only way Murray won't advance is if Delpo wins two sets 6-0 and Federer wins the other 7-6. If Delpo wins in three sets, all three players will be 2-1 with a 5-4 set differential, so the tiebreaker would be percentage of games won. Fed has the huge edge there, and the only way Delpo could pass him in a three-set victory would be to win 11 games more than Fed.

After the group winner is determined, they revert back to head-to-head for the second spot. Since Murray beat Delpo, he would get it.

If Delpo wins in straights, he and Murray advance in that order based on percentage of sets won.

Obviously, if Fed wins, he and Murray advance in that order.

[summerinok]

is roger a genius at math too? 3 times 1 point away of sending murray into the semi, he lost 3 straight games from there....

(ok, prob not...)

[funches]

I googled the tiebreaker scenario and it took me to the Tennis-X outerboard, where a very confident individual outlined the tiebreakers totally wrong. Whoever it was insisted the tiebreaker only determined the group winner and the second spot was determined by head-to-head.

Actually, the tiebreaker determined both spots.

On a related note, I was having Thanksgiving dinner at a relative's house and only was able to check the Federer match twice. The first time he was down a set and it was 3-3 in the second. The next time it looked like he had won the second set and had won four games in the third set, but I couldn't see Delpo's score because it was too low on the TV screen. I relaxed, knowing Federer had advanced to the semis. It was only a few minutes ago that I found out the actual score. What I saw was 6-6 in the second set and Federer with four points in the tiebreak, maybe even when he trailed 5-4 and was two points from elimination.

I'm glad I had it wrong. It made the rest of dinner much more fun.

[Forehand_lob]

Well, the semis are to be played, but that means we have 4 players whose points are more-or-less settled (Davis Cup could affect Nadal and Verdasco).

Nadal (0-3) - 9205, possibly up to 50 more points from Davis Cup - stays #2
Djokovic (2-1) - 8310 - stays #3
Murray (2-1) - 7030 - less than 700 points ahead of del Potro as of pre-semis; if del Potro wins, Murray will drop out of the top 4
Verdasco (0-3) - 3300, possibly up to 100 more points from Davis Cup - overtaken by Soderling no matter what

And let's throw in the live players with major caveats on all of them because I am not sure of my math abilities this morning.

Federer (2-1) - 10550 - #1, no more points after losing to Davydenko
Del Potro (2-1 + SF win) - 6785 - see above comment under Murray; no overtaking as Davydenko beat him in the final
Davydenko (2-1 + SF win + F win) - 4930 - overtakes Roddick for #6 by beating Federer
Soderling (2-1) - 3410 - overtakes Verdasco for #8, he's 1000 points behind Roddick

At some point in December, I will give into major numbers geek dissection of the top 10 men for tournaments and likely ranking changes next year.

EDIT: corrected Verdasco's W-L record and updated Federer and Davydenko after their match. Somewhere, our old boardmate Noemi is downing champagne for her guy.

EDIT the second: put in Del Potro's win over Soderling, despite Del Po playing the worst tiebreaker I've ever seen in the first set.

EDIT the third: put in the results of the final. Noemi is now putting her celebration the day before to shame.

[Forehand_lob]

Well, it's not December and I'm not going to give my opinions (yet), but I do have a stupid amount of numbers and breakdowns for you. Here are the top 10 men.

As a note, I did not include the WTFs in either the "Master's points" or the "Other tournaments" so that's why those numbers don't add to the total. "Early hardcourt season" covers the year until Miami. "Claycourt season" is from Miami to the French Open. "Grass season" is from the French Open to Wimbledon. "Summer hardcourt" is from Wimbledon until the US Open. "Post US Open" is exactly what it says it is. There were also a few claycourt tournaments held in Europe when the European players ignore the US Open series, so I threw those into "Summer claycourt". You all know what belong under these headers, but I'm used to giving definitions because of my job.

Federer
Rank: 1
Points: 10,550
Grand Slam points: 6,400
Master's points: 3,360
Other tournaments: 390 (2)

Early hardcourt season: 2,010
Claycourt season: 3,450
Grass season: 2,000
Summer hardcourt: 2,380
Post US Open: 1,110

Nadal
Rank: 2
Points: 9,205
Grand Slam points: 2,900 (did not play Wimbledon)
Master's points: 5,280
Other tournaments: 1,025 (4)

Early hardcourt season: 3,525
Claycourt season: 3,280
Grass season: 0
Summer hardcourt: 1,260
Post US Open: 1,140

Djokovic
Rank: 3
Points: 8,310
Grand Slam points: 1,530
Master's points: 4,480
Other tournaments: 1,900 (5)

Early harcourt season: 1,640
Claycourt season: 1,900
Grass season: 510
Summer hardcourt: 1,500
Post US Open: 2,760

Murray
Rank: 4
Points: 7,030
Grand Slam points: 1,440
Master's points: 3,600
Other tournaments: 1,590 (5)

Early hardcourt season: 2,620
Claycourt season: 910
Grass season: 970
Summer hardcourt: 1,540
Post US Open: 990

Del Potro:
Rank: 5
Points: 6,785
Grand Slam points: 3,125
Master's points: 1,870 (did not participate in Monte Carlo)
Other tournaments: 910 (4)
Davis cup: 80

Early hardcourt season: 1,240
Claycourt season: 1,330
Grass season: 45 (grass is for cows)
Summer hardcourt: 3,100
Post US Open: 990

Davydenko
Rank: 6
Points: 4,930
Grand Slam points: 630
Master's points: 1,640
Other tournaments: 1,360 (5)

Early hardcourt season: 0 (did play Chennai and Rotterdam)
Claycourt season: 820
Grass season: 90
Summer hardcourt: 450
Summer clay: 750
Post US Open: 2,820

Roddick
Rank: 7
Points: 4,410
Grand Slam points: 2,190
Master's points: 1,100 (did not play Monte Carlo)
Other tournaments: 1,040
Davis Cup: 80

Early hardcourt season: 1,910
Claycourt season: 360
Grass season: 1,290
Summer hardcourt: 760
Post US Open: 10

Soderling
Rank: 8
Points: 3,410
Grand Slam points: 1,785
Master's points: 525
Other tournaments: 700 (6)

Early hardcourt season: 180
Claycourt season: 1,355
Grass season: 180
Summer hardcourt: 460
Summer clay: 295
Post US Open: 940

Verdasco
Rank: 9
Points: 3,300
Grand Slam points: 1,440
Master's points: 1,100
Other tournaments: 760 (5)

Early hardcourt season: 1,080
Claycourt season: 810
Grass season: 180
Summer hardcourt: 710
Post US Open: 520

Tsonga
Rank: 10
Points: 2,875
Grand Slam points: 810
Master's points: 920 (did not play Monte Carlo)
Other tournaments: 1,090
Davis Cup: 55

Early hardcourt season: 1,175
Claycourt season: 235
Grass season: 90
Summer hardcourt: 550
Post US Open: 770

[Forehand_lob]

Looking at the breakdown and considering the quality of play in Shanghai, I think Djokovic will overtake Nadal early in the year. To my mind, it really becomes an issue of if Nadal recovers for claycourt season or not. The not-deep-hitting, not-chasing-every-ball-down Nadal that showed up in Shanghai is not going to sweep clay events.

Murray and Djokovic have the most room to improve at Slams. Davydenko is a lock for #6 early on and has a good shot at moving back into the top 5 if he either performs very well in the early season or one of Murray/Djokovic/Del Potro don't do well. If Roddick looks to move up in the rankings, he's got to do better in the summer hardcourt and post-US Open times. I'm thinking he'll drop below Soderling, who has to be happy that at #8 he won't meet Federer until the QFs of a slam. Barring suddenly getting his head on right, I think Verdasco drops out of the top 10 first (post-AO).

Roddick, Soderling, and Tsonga also need to not get hurt.

[Forehand_lob]

And in a break from the top 10, I feel like taking a look at some other players.

Gulbis is currently ranked 90th. He has few points to defend, so he can go up quickly if he ever gets his head on straight (and avoid high ranked players in the early rounds). If he doesn't do well at the Australian Open, he would appear to be ready to head back to the Challenger circuit to work up his ranking and confidence (he did not do very well in qualifying).

And speaking of someone who did hit the Challengers, there's Baggy at 42. He's defending a 4th round at the AO, but he's generally played well there. He also looks set to get direct entry into the Master's, so that should help him a lot. There's a good chance he'll be seeded in time for the French Open.

Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on how they do) the ranks around these two players are fairly dense with point totals. A good tournament can push them up quite a ways, while a bad one can drop them.

And since everyone loves Hewitt (ranked 22nd), there's a fairly good chance that he'll go back into the top 20 since he'll be seeded for the AO and isn't defending anything since he got matched up against Gonzo last time. It also helps that Wawrinka and Berdych are immediately above him (separated by 35 and 55 points respectively) and I expect Berdych to go back to moping mode and lose earlier in the AO than the 4th round.

[Forehand_lob]

My numbers obsession rears its head again. Though I'd like to point out that I was right about Hewitt re-entering the top 20. Too bad hip surgery is pretty much going to take him out of it.

Here's the top 8 men and what they're defending through the end of early hardcourt season.

Federer - 11,350
defending 2 SFs at Indian Wells and Miami (360 each) - 720 total

Djokovic - 8,310
defending a QF at Indian Wells (180), a final at Miami (600), and a win at Dubai (500 points) - 1,280 total

Murray - 7,800
defending a final at Indian Wells (600), a win at Miami (1000), a win in Rotterdam (500), and a QF at Dubai (90) - 2,190 total

Nadal - 7,670
defending a win at Indian Wells (1000), a QF at Miami (180), and a final in Rotterdam (300) - 1,480 total

Del Potro - 6,400
defending a QF at Indian Wells (180), a SF at Miami (360), a QF in San Jose (45), and a QF in Memphis (90) - 675 total

Davydenko - 5,290
defending nothing

Roddick - 4,150
defending a SF at Indian Wells (360), a QF at Miami (180), and a win at Memphis (500) - 1,040 total

Soderling - 3,375
defending a R64 at Indian Wells and Miami (10 points each) and a challenger win (115 points) - 135 total

Federer has played poorly at IW and Miami the last few years; I'm not sure whether he'll break that this year. If he plays Dubai, he'll open up more space between the #1 and #2.

Murray and Nadal have a mess of points to defend. Del Potro could overtake Nadal for #4 if he plays well and Nadal does not. Davydenko has played well at Miami in the past, so he could possibly jump over Rafa as well. Nadal seeded outside of the top 4 during claycourt season would be pretty worrying to any of the top 4.