Ranking numbers

[tennisontherocks]

Thanks for doing all the math

Del Potro has great chance to jump to #3 if he wins one of the masters series events.

yes, nadal out of top 4 on clay is not a good news for top 4. But just imagine Roger-Rafa facing off in RG quarters with his streak of 23 semis on the line

Roger is 18 weeks shy of breaking Sampras's record of 286 weeks as #1. He is defending less points compared to other guys till Madrid and then he is defending 5000 points in next 2 months. So unless he misses big chunk of time with injury, he looks to be in good shape to beat that record.

[Forehand_lob]

So what did we learn from Indian Wells and Miami?

Well, first of all, Soderling has a great chance of remaining in the top 10 after the French Open. Even removing the points for his final leaves him at 3,395, ahead of Cilic by just over 400 points. And since it's vacation time for Roddick (aka clay court season), I don't see Roddick's lead of less than 200 points standing until Roland Garros.

Second of all, without those deep pushes that Murray made last year, he's in danger of being overtaken by del Potro. Had del Potro not been injured, he likely would have earned more than 100 points to displace the Scot.

Nadal could overtake Djokovic for #2 by Roland Garros, but that depends on him playing on clay like he has for the last few years and Djokovic stumbling. Djokovic is defending 1,810 points before the French Open, while Nadal is defending 3,100. With less than 700 points separating them, falling a round or two before where he did last year could send Djokovic back to #3 if Rafa wins.

Davydenko can also make his way into the top 4. He's only defending 280 points before RG and only 510 separates him and Murray. With Murray playing like he is and del Potro injured, it's very possible that he'll overtake them both (and very likely post Roland Garros).

Despite skipping Monte Carlo, Federer is scheduled to play Estoril and could theoretically increase his lead in points, if he equals or betters his combined Rome and Madrid results.

[funches]

^^^^
Interesting stuff, as usual.

A ranking of 1) Federer, 2) Nadal, 3) Djokovic, 4) Davydenko would be the best in terms of fairness for Roland Garros. There's no real difference between 1 and 2, and Fed and Rafa have earned the right to meet only in the final with their play in Paris the last five years. There's no difference between 3 and 4, either, and Djokovic and Davydenko clearly are better on clay than Murray.

I'm discounting Delpo because I don't think he'll be 100-percent healthy. If he's in the mix, I'd put him at No. 4 and move Davydenko down to No. 5.

Roddick made the second week of Roland Garros last year for the first time. Barring a bad draw, I'll be surprised if he does not reach at least the fourth round again and possibly the quarters if he gets a really friendly draw (i.e, Ljubicic, Youzhny as the top seed in his section).

[tennisontherocks]

Kolya is expected to be out for another month with wrist fracture. But he is usually very good to recover from injuries, so can still make a push for #4 before RG.

But women's side looks lot more interesting. Venus is #4 now and only 500 behind #2 Wozniacki. Venus is not playing charleston, else she could have become #2 there. If not, Venus has only the Rome semis to defend between now and looks like we will have Serena/Venus as #1/2 at RG and may be even at the Wimbledon (depends on RG results). Kimmy is in top 10 now and only 300 behind #8 Radwanska, so by RG she will be in top 8. Justine is at #23 and all top players would be happy to have her in top 16 by RG to avoid facing her before 4th round.

[Forehand_lob]

You would bring up the broken wrist that I completely forgot about, wouldn't you, TotR?

Here's the early hardcourt season point totals for the top 10 men. Still haven't managed to hit the interest in doing it for the women yet. I'm not including Davis Cup because I don't completely remember what surface was played on, and trying to specify hardcourt makes it more difficult.

Federer - 2225
Djokovic - 1140 (960 count toward ranking)
Nadal - 1230
Murray - 1435
del Potro - 180
Davydenko - 880 (835 count toward ranking)
Roddick - 2450
Soderling - 1275 (1230 count toward ranking)
Cilic - 1410
Tsonga - 1125

Over half of Cilic and Tsonga's points come from their SFs at the AO. They've fallen off since then. Soderling's miserable AO seems to have been countered by his 2 SFs at IW and Miami and his Rotterdam title. Roddick has been the most consistent of the top 10, but that just doesn't cut it at slams. On the bright side for del Potro, he'll have a lot of opportunities for points next year.

[Forehand_lob]

Post-Monte Carlo update.

With Nadal repeating and Djokovic not backing up his final from last year, the gap falls to 410 between them. Assuming that Nadal repeats at Barcelona and Rome (would you bet against him?), Djokovic needs to make the semis in Rome, otherwise he's overtaken for #2. Both are still scheduled for Madrid (I though I heard Nadal was skipping it, but it's on his website's schedule).

EDIT: And Nadal withdraws from Barcelona (or so the front page claims). That means the gap will go to 910 between him and Djokovic, meaning Djokovic can hold on to #2 provided he doesn't lose incredibly early in either Rome or the Djokovic Open (aka the Serbian Open).

[tennisontherocks]

yeah, now its almost certain that Djokovic will hold on to #2 spot at RG. But still a smart move by Nadal to sit out of Barcelona as playing 3 weeks is just not worth it anymore for him.

Stosur gets back in top 10. Venus looks to be in good shape to become #2 after Stuttgart or Rome. Oudin is at #31 now, but has 2 challenger wins to defend in May. But few decent results in Rome/madrid should be enough for her to be seeded at RG.

[Forehand_lob]

With Nadal sweeping claycourt season like he did, he's pretty much #1 until the US Open unless he really falls down at Wimbledon and the summer hardcourt season. He, gulp, lost to F-lo (the other one) at Queens. I also hesitate to mention it in case someone thinks I'm denigrating him, but Nadal hasn't won a non-claycourt tournament since Indian Wells 2009, though he's been far more consistent than Federer. He should increase to 8745 with his QF at Queens.

Federer would increase his points to 8550 if he wins Halle. The magical Wimbledon seeding formula would put him over Nadal (I think), but shouldn't displace Nadal out of the top 2.

Murray looks to still be in his funk, and had Davydenko played Roland Garros, I'm fairly certain he would displace him in the top 4 after Wimbledon. The magical seeding is not likely to displace Murray out of the top 4, though I think Roddick will come close.

[tennisontherocks]

now there is no magic left in wimbledon seeding. The seeding committee is a computer that basically adds weighted grass points from last 3 years. Since Nadal has zero from last year, that should be enough for Roger to jump ahead of him...and that's going to provide lot of fodder for endless debates (not here, but various other message boards) about who really deserves to be #1 seed and how everyone loves Roger and hates Nadal and blah blah blah.

But on women's side, the seeing committee does have power to do anything they want to do...and I am curious to see what they do with Kim, Maria and Justine, who are currently ranked 9, 17 and 18, respectively. I would put them at 7, 8 and 9...maybe even higher...but Dementieva has reached semis last 2 times and Frankie reached quarters last year and just won a slam. So I would let them stay where they are.

[funches]

Sharapova no longer is that good on grass and did not deserve a bump up. Never mind the shoulder injury. She had become much better on hard courts than grass when she was at the top of her game.

Actually, it has been awhile since Wimbledon has changed the women's seeds at all. Remember, they care more about the petunias than the women, as their head so famously implied several years ago when he explained their old policy of giving more money to the men than the women.

[tennisontherocks]

Roger will drop to #3 on Monday and is defending more points than Novak before US open. So unless he sweeps US hard court tourneys, he will be #3 heading into the US open.